Understanding IB Predicted Grades

Predicted grades are one of the most crucial elements of your IB journey, directly affecting university applications and conditional offers. Understanding how they work, what influences them, and how to maximize your predictions is essential for achieving your higher education goals.

What Are Predicted Grades?

Definition and Purpose

• Teacher Estimates: Professional judgment of likely final results
• Application Tool: Used by universities for admissions decisions
• Conditional Basis: Foundation for conditional university offers
• Interim Assessment: Bridge between current performance and final exams

When They're Issued

• October/November Year 2: For UK university applications
• December/January Year 2: For US and other applications
• Updated Predictions: May be revised closer to exams
• Final Submission: Typically by March of exam year

How Predicted Grades Are Determined

Assessment Evidence

Internal Assessments

• IA Scores: Completed internal assessment marks
• Quality of Work: Depth of analysis and understanding
• Improvement Trajectory: Progress over time
• Subject-Specific Skills: Demonstration of key competencies

Mock Examinations

• Mock Results: Performance on practice exams
• Exam Technique: Ability to perform under pressure
• Time Management: Efficiency in timed conditions
• Question Analysis: Understanding of exam requirements

Coursework Performance

• Class Tests: Regular assessment results
• Homework Quality: Consistency and engagement
• Participation: Active involvement in learning
• Analytical Skills: Critical thinking development

Teacher Professional Judgment

Experience Factors

• Historical Data: Past student performance patterns
• Grade Boundaries: Understanding of IB standards
• Student Potential: Assessment of capability
• External Moderation: Alignment with IB expectations

Individual Student Factors

• Learning Trajectory: Rate of improvement
• Motivation Level: Commitment to success
• Exam Preparation: Readiness for final assessments
• Subject Aptitude: Natural ability and understanding

The Impact of Predicted Grades

University Applications

UK Universities (UCAS)

• Conditional Offers: Based primarily on predicted grades
• Grade Requirements: Specific predictions needed for offers
• Insurance Choices: Lower predictions for backup options
• Clearing Process: Adjustment if predictions missed

US Universities

• Holistic Review: One factor among many
• Academic Rigor: Demonstrates challenging coursework
• Trend Analysis: Shows academic trajectory
• Credit Potential: Higher predictions suggest college credit

Other International Universities

• Entry Requirements: Minimum predicted scores needed
• Scholarship Eligibility: Higher predictions for merit awards
• Course Placement: Advanced standing opportunities
• Application Strength: Competitive advantage

Scholarship Applications

• Merit-Based Awards: High predictions required
• Government Scholarships: National and international programs
• University Scholarships: Institution-specific awards
• Private Foundation: External scholarship programs

Strategies to Maximize Predicted Grades

Academic Performance

Internal Assessment Excellence

• Early Preparation: Start IA work well in advance
• Teacher Consultation: Regular feedback sessions
• Quality Over Quantity: Depth of analysis matters
• Revision Opportunities: Use feedback for improvement

Mock Exam Performance

• Serious Preparation: Treat mocks like real exams
• Past Paper Practice: Familiarize with question styles
• Time Management: Practice exam techniques
• Review and Learn: Analyze mock results thoroughly

Consistent Coursework

• Regular Effort: Maintain high standards throughout
• Homework Quality: Complete assignments thoroughly
• Class Participation: Engage actively in discussions
• Improvement Focus: Show continuous development

Communication with Teachers

Understanding Expectations

• Grade Boundaries: Ask about requirements for each grade
• Assessment Criteria: Understand marking standards
• Improvement Areas: Identify specific development needs
• Timeline Awareness: Know when predictions are made

Demonstrating Commitment

• Extra Support: Seek additional help when needed
• Initiative Shows: Go beyond minimum requirements
• Goal Communication: Share university aspirations
• Progress Updates: Keep teachers informed of improvements

Strategic Subject Management

Higher Level Focus

• Priority Allocation: More time for HL subjects
• University Relevance: Focus on subjects for intended major
• Grade Impact: HL grades often more important
• Teacher Relationships: Strong connections with HL teachers

Balanced Approach

• All Subjects Matter: Don't neglect any subject
• Diploma Requirements: Need minimum grades across all
• Overall Points: Total score affects offers
• Subject Compensation: Strong subjects can offset weaker ones

Understanding the Grading Scale

IB Grade Boundaries

• Grade 7: 80-100% (Excellent)
• Grade 6: 73-79% (Very Good)
• Grade 5: 65-72% (Good)
• Grade 4: 56-64% (Satisfactory - Pass)
• Grade 3: 47-55% (Mediocre)
• Grade 2: 38-46% (Poor)
• Grade 1: 0-37% (Very Poor)

Core Component Grading

• Extended Essay: A, B, C, D, E grades
• Theory of Knowledge: A, B, C, D, E grades
• Bonus Points: Up to 3 additional points from EE+TOK
• CAS: Pass/Fail requirement

Diploma Requirements

• Minimum Total: 24 points required
• Subject Minimums: No grade below 3 in HL, 2 in SL
• HL Requirements: At least 12 points from HL subjects
• Core Components: Pass CAS, acceptable EE and TOK

Dealing with Predicted Grade Disappointment

Understanding the Decision

• Teacher Discussion: Ask for specific feedback
• Evidence Review: Understand what influenced prediction
• Improvement Plan: Identify areas for development
• Timeline Consideration: Opportunities for revision

Improvement Strategies

• Targeted Effort: Focus on specific weaknesses
• Additional Support: Tutoring or extra sessions
• Performance Evidence: Demonstrate improvement
• Alternative Plans: Adjust university choices if needed

Application Adjustments

• Realistic Choices: Match applications to predictions
• Safety Schools: Include lower-requirement options
• Alternative Pathways: Consider foundation years or gap years
• Appeal Options: Formal processes if appropriate

Predicted vs. Actual Results

Statistical Accuracy

• Generally Accurate: Most predictions within 1 grade
• Conservative Tendency: Teachers often predict slightly lower
• Subject Variation: Some subjects more predictable
• School Factors: Experience affects accuracy

Exceeding Predictions

• University Benefits: Better chances if exceed conditions
• Scholarship Opportunities: Additional awards possible
• Course Upgrades: Better program options
• Credit Recognition: More advanced standing

Missing Predictions

• Clearing Process: Find alternative university places
• Gap Year Options: Retake exams next year
• Alternative Qualifications: Other routes to university
• Support Services: School and university guidance

Special Circumstances

Mitigating Factors

• Health Issues: Medical documentation for schools
• Personal Circumstances: Family or financial difficulties
• School Factors: Teacher changes or resource issues
• External Events: Natural disasters or emergencies

Documentation and Support

• Evidence Collection: Gather relevant documentation
• School Communication: Inform coordinators early
• University Notification: Share circumstances with admissions
• Professional Support: Counseling or medical help

Predicted grades are a crucial bridge between your current performance and future opportunities. Focus on consistent academic excellence, build strong relationships with teachers, and communicate your goals clearly. Remember that predictions can be revised based on continued improvement and demonstration of capability.

Use this understanding to motivate your efforts throughout Year 2, knowing that every assignment, test, and class participation contributes to your predicted grades and ultimately your university prospects.